Sugar hits 18-year high on drought threat
 

The rally in sugar prices gathered momentum on Monday amid concerns about tight supplies and low stocks.

ICE October raw sugar, the global benchmark, jumped 4.8 per cent to 21.80 cents a pound, the highest level since mid-1981.

The market is viewed as being in uncharted territory, having traded above current levels only on two previous occasions. Both involved massive spikes. Prices surged above 50 cents per pound in 1974-75 and 1980-81.

Raw sugar prices have already risen 84.6 per cent this year as bad weather has affected output in Brazil and India, the world’s two largest producers.

The latest weather reports from India, the world’s largest sugar consumer, indicated no significant improvement in this year’s monsoon and fears are growing that some of the country’s key agricultural growing regions could face drought.

Egypt on Monday said that import duties on raw and white sugar imports would be suspended from August 15 until the end of the year to bolster supplies.

In London, Liffe October white sugar rose 4.1 per cent to $559 a tonne, up 75.9 per cent this year.

Sugar inventories are estimated to be at record lows as many producers and physical traders maintain minimal stock levels to reduce costs.

Analysts at Czarnikow, the sugar broker, published a revised estimate for global sugar stocks of about 20m tonnes, well below the range of current market estimates of between 30m tonnes and 70m tonnes. China, India, Brazil, Europe and the US account for 65 per cent of all stocks.

“Aside from Europe and China which are carrying surplus stock, most countries are running short of sugar,” said Toby Cohen, director at Czarnikow. “This is the case even in the top five stock holding countries, as both India and the US need to increase imports in 2010 to prevent demand over-running supply.”

Mr Cohen warned that India’s stock position looked particularly vulnerable, with inventories on course to fall as low as 2.2m tonnes during the Diwali festival in mid-October, before new season supplies become available.

Czarnikow said low stocks were not only a problem in the developing world as the US stocks-to-consumption ratio could fall to 10 per cent this year, suggesting higher imports would be required.

Crude oil prices recovered from early weakness, with Nymex September West Texas Intermediate up 12 cents to $71.05 a barrel while ICE September Brent gained 26 cents at $73.85 a barrel.

In Chicago, trading in grains and soyabeans was cautious ahead of Wednesday’s US Department of Agriculture August crop report.

CBOT September corn rose 5 cents to $3.27 a bushel while CBOT September wheat added 8 cents at $4.97� a bushel, but CBOT August soyabeans dipped 10 cents to $10.74� a bushel.

The consensus view is for the USDA to revise its 2009/10 corn production forecast from 12.29bn bushels to 12.508bn bushels, helped by higher yield estimates, up from 153.4 bushels an acre to 157.5. The USDA forecast for the 2009/10 soyabean crop at 3.26bn bushels, a record, could be trimmed to 3.225bn bushels.
.Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009. You may share using our article tools



http://www.ft.com/cms/s/49ad6a64-859...er=&ftcamp=rss

Re: Sugar hits 18-year high on drought threat
 

I got out of shuga back in the 14s...I can't believe the legs it's had.

I'm cautiously looking for puts, and am quite glad I haven't sprung for any yet.:confused_m:

Re: Sugar hits 18-year high on drought threat
 

I know I plan on stocking up before the price increase hits.

Re: Sugar hits 18-year high on drought threat
 

I guess I could buy a few more bags of sugar as well.

As expensive as it is when you think about it, it is still dirt cheap though.

Re: Sugar hits 18-year high on drought threat
 

Better to stock up sooner than later folks.


Food Firms Warn of Sugar Shortage

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1250...ws_us_business

Re: Sugar hits 18-year high on drought threat
 

Sugar is an INFERIOR good. So why worry about what price it is?

Re: Sugar hits 18-year high on drought threat
 

I'm going to start a website www.sugarismoney.info

http://www.csiro.au/files/images/p77o.jpg

Re: Sugar hits 18-year high on drought threat
 

Right, it gets rid of the "if the SHTF, you can't eat it, can you?" argument, doesn't it?

Re: Sugar hits 18-year high on drought threat
 

If you dont hold it, you can't eat it.

Re: Sugar hits 18-year high on drought threat
 

we have put up 100 pounds so far , an it maybe a good thing to have to trade with , we seen last week sugar here went up 49 cents more for a 5 pound bag

Re: Sugar hits 18-year high on drought threat
 

we use it in so much of our fruit and pickle canning .. i cant imagine it not being around! yea i know its not the healthiest food, but its simply a matter of it being necessary in many, many recipes.

ever try making fruit jams or jellies WITHOUT sugar???

Re: Sugar hits 18-year high on drought threat
 

It is now at a 28 year high.

Re: Sugar hits 18-year high on drought threat
 

I make freezer jam with stevia and fruit puree. It's the best you will ever taste. Of course, sugar still offers a very good caloric density for SHTF and is an important part of one's preps.

Re: Sugar hits 18-year high on drought threat
 

Sugar Growers Say Supplies Adequate, No Need for More Imports


Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The largest U.S. sugar-growers group disputes a Department of Agriculture forecast of an 89 percent drop in Mexican supplies and opposes looser import restrictions.

The forecast for Mexican shipments may be overstated, said Jack Roney, the group’s economics and policy analysis director in Washington. Yesterday, the USDA raised an estimate for U.S. stockpiles in the year ending Sept. 30 by 14 percent and almost doubled the forecast for next year. The agency has until Sept. 30 to change the import rules before a six-month window closes.

“We’ve got plenty of sugar on hand to sell, and there’s plenty of time” to consider increasing import caps, Roney said. The USDA’s latest forecasts show there’s no urgency, he said.

A coalition of food companies including General Mills Inc., Kraft Foods Inc. and ConAgra Foods Inc. last week asked the government to raise import limits so they can buy more supplies from Brazil, the Philippines and other exporters. The companies cited diminishing inventories and surging prices.

Next year’s ratio of stocks-to-use, which the USDA forecast at 6.7 percent, would be the lowest since 1949, according to department data. Global prices have jumped 88 percent this year as output in India, the world’s largest producer after Brazil, is threatened by below-normal monsoon rain.

White, or refined, sugar rose to a record in London today on speculation that improving economic outlook in U.S. and Europe may buoy demand as supplies drop. Raw-sugar futures fell 3.3 percent today in New York as traders began selling positions to take advantage of yesterday’s 28-year high.

Window Narrowing

Under legislation passed last year, the USDA may only change sugar import quotas in the final six months of the federal fiscal year, which ends Sept. 30. This year, the USDA expects 1.43 million short tons (1.3 million metric tons) of raw sugar to be imported under the quotas. Mexico’s shipments are forecast to reach 1.45 million short tons, more than double the 2008 level, and then plunge to 165,000 short tons next year.

A group of companies that use the sweetener in their products, including PepsiCo Inc. and Hershey Co., said today that another 450,000 short tons needs to be available by Sept. 30 to meet U.S. sugar needs.

“Increasing the supply has the potential to benefit consumers, preserve and add jobs by guaranteeing adequate supplies to keep production lines running,” the Sweetener Users Association asserted in a statement. A higher quota may also “reduce taxpayer costs as food prices affect inflation-indexed programs,” the association said.

The USDA is monitoring the market situation, Justin DeJong, a department spokesman, said in a statement.

Sugar is the only major U.S. crop subject to import limits. The restrictions are designed to benefit domestic producers.

Imports are restricted from almost all countries. Last year, Mexican shipments became exempt under the North American Free Trade Agreement.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=ayVzQoakz2JI


I'm sure the prices will still go up, regardless the REAL story!

Re: Sugar hits 18-year high on drought threat
 

oh boy here comes the boat load of HFCS

Re: Sugar hits 18-year high on drought threat
 

I bet it takes us a year to go through one 5 pound bag. Probably more than a year. If it was just me, one 5 pound bag could probably make it ten years!

Gregg

Re: Sugar hits 18-year high on drought threat
 

How much "sugar" you use is not very important. What is important is how high prices will go when this spills over into all areas of food production. IMHO, this means great price increases across the board for almost all storebought food.

Re: Sugar hits 18-year high on drought threat
 

I think 'scarcity' might become a factor too. But who really knows?

Re: Sugar hits 18-year high on drought threat
 

I sure am glad my tax dollars go to bailing out the sugar farmers, year in and year out. The tariffs are super cool too!

Re: Sugar hits 18-year high on drought threat
 

Eliminate sugar and corn syrup from your diet entirely. It will save you money and your health.

Re: Sugar hits 18-year high on drought threat
 

Use honey instead of sugar. Or even better, keep a hive or two and you can say goodbye to sugar.

Re: Sugar hits 18-year high on drought threat
 

Whats the best way to store sugar long term?

Mason jars with oxy absorbers?

Im a believer...gonna stock up JIC.

Re: Sugar hits 18-year high on drought threat
 

Very Good point Tallships, a lot of us know this but it doesn't necessarily cross our minds.

Re: Sugar hits 18-year high on drought threat
 

Pure sugar is actually toxic, bacteria can't grow on it. As long as you can keep it dry so it doesn't turn into a solid block you should be ok.

Re: Sugar hits 18-year high on drought threat
 

I can't believe you have all failed to catch:

"Sugar...High"

Re: Sugar hits 18-year high on drought threat
 

The movie was pretty crazy Richmond.

Not sure what point you were trying to get across or if it was just for entertainment.

We all know that sugar is not healthy but it is necessary if you plan on making home preserves and for the odd treat. I think it is a good idea to at least have some on hand. It lasts almost forever and could be used to barter with.

Re: Sugar hits 18-year high on drought threat
 

Sugar is, as a percentage of the monetary value of inputs into a foodstuff, miniscule. It might make Oreos go up but not so much most other foods.

A far greater input cost is corn/wheat/rice, all of which have halved in the last 12 months.

IOW, if food prices skyrocket, it's because the producer, wholesaler, retailer, or all three are raping you, not because sugar has had a run.

Re: Sugar hits 18-year high on drought threat
 

And most importantly, you can use it to make your own hooch.

Re: Sugar hits 18-year high on drought threat
 

Recipe(s) please!!!

Re: Sugar hits 18-year high on drought threat
 

Welch's (no sugar added) grape juice, some cheap yeast, two cups sugar per liter, and put a balloon over the top (tight fit) with a pinhole in it. Let it sit in a dark cool spot until the balloon goes flaccid. Strain dead yeast, refrigerate, then drink.

Re: Sugar hits 18-year high on drought threat
 

here are some more recipes

http://www.moderndrunkardmagazine.co...-jailhouse.htm

Re: Sugar hits 18-year high on drought threat
 

Pakistan Requires 1 Million Tons of Imported Sugar, Group Says


Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Pakistan, Asia’s third-largest user of sugar, needs to import as much as 1 million metric tons by December to meet a shortfall in domestic supplies, a trade body head said.

Planned imports of as much as 375,000 tons are not enough to meet demand, Abdul Wajid, Chairman of Pakistan Sugar Mills Association in the southern Sindh province, said in a telephone interview today.

Pakistan may produce 3.4 million tons in the year starting Oct. 1, lagging demand, Wajid said. Production declined to 3.7 million tons this season, 1 million tons less than last year.

Sugar surged to a 28-year high in New York on Aug. 12 amid concern of a global shortfall. Prices in Pakistan have jumped 50 percent in past two months.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aZf2Q5X.c7xU

Re: Sugar hits 18-year high on drought threat
 

Sugar looking to stay imbedded, maybe above 24 this time?

http://i87.photobucket.com/albums/k1.../sugar8_19.gif